Gold Forecast: Failure to Test Monthly Low Warns of Range ...

Gold bulls will step back. Forecast as of 05.11.2020

Gold bulls will step back. Forecast as of 05.11.2020

Weekly fundamental forecast for gold

Gold, like most assets, lively reacted to the US presidential election. It first dropped amid the growing chance of Donald Trump’s victory; next, it resumed rising after the news about Biden’s likely victory. Gold follows Treasuries and greenback, so its short-term outlook is quite clear. Another matter is a more distant future.
The worst drop of Treasury yields over the past seven years has triggered the XAUUSD rally. If Biden could still become the President, the Democrats will hardly take the majority in the Senate. If so, the US government will hardly provide a massive fiscal stimulus. They will issue fewer bonds than it was earlier expected. Does it make sense to sell Treasuries in the secondary market?

Dynamics of US Treasury yield


Source: Wall Street Journal
Besides, the daily death rate of COVID-19 hits a record high; the number of infected people exceeded 600 thousand per day for the first time since the pandemic had started. Furthermore, some euro-area economies are locked down, the US economy has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the Treasuries should continue falling. Nonetheless, the yield is at a level higher than that in summer, 0.6%, which signals that markets still expect a stimulus. Remember, gold can’t win over the income-generating assets, so the drop in Treasury yields is a bullish factor for the XAUUSD.
Gold should also benefit from a weaker dollar. The dollar is rising amid Trump’s success, and the chances for Trump’s reelection are going down. So, the USD is also going down. In fact, traders are working out the idea of the widening of the US twin deficit in the case of Joe Biden’s victory. Is there any use in trading based on a single idea? One had better focus on such factors as the leading pace of the US GDP compared to the euro-area growth, pressed down by lockdowns, and the continuing political uncertainty resulted from Trump’s willingness to reject the election results.

Dynamics of US budget deficit, % of GDP


Source: Financial Times
If the greenback starts rising, the gold rally will stop. Will the Fed’s pricing affect it? I don’t think the FOMC member would take active measures at the October meeting, as the voting results are still unknown. The Fed is likely to stick to its wait-and-see approach, going on with its vague speeches about the necessity of the fiscal stimulus and the US central bank’s willingness to take active steps if needed.
The uncertainty around the US presidential elections undermines the importance of not only the Fed’s meeting but also of the US jobs report. On the other hand, if it will be known who has won the elections by the time of the release of the US employment data, investors will consider the factor of the downturn in the US employment.

Weekly gold trading plan

Therefore, the greenback could soon start growing. If so, it should be relevant to enter short-term gold sell trades on the price rebound from the resistances at $1930-$1935 and $1965-$1970.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/gold-bulls-will-step-back-forecast-as-of-05112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

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𝗨𝗦 🇺🇸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗪𝗿𝗮𝗽 〽️

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Markets had all their attention on the signing of a phase one deal between the US and China yesterday.
Today's Market Forecast:
☑️ #EURUSD still the same. No major policy changes in many months. ☑️ #AUDUSD has been holding around the 0.6900 level but didn’t fall away. ☑️ #GOLD is making a series of lower highs and does look bearish after the big spike. ☑️ #Bitcoin push higher looks like it might be running out of steam just under the $9,000 resistance level.
PS: Join our Telegram group to get daily forex signals, news, and more updates in your pocket (mobile): t.me/pipstowin
submitted by ronykhanfx to PipsWin [link] [comments]

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Weekly Forex & Crypto Analysis by PrimeXBT

Weekly Forex & Crypto Analysis by PrimeXBT
The week has started and was led by the only title and header around all economic news which is “US-China trade wars”.
US-China trade wars in general had its effect on all markets, including cryptocurrency. The United States wants to tighten cryptocurrency use and claimed that it’s been used by smugglers and drug-dealers and pointed out that most of the transactions are made in China.
This week BTC tried to break $10500 on Monday, August 26th and was rejected, the price then was floating between $10400-10300 and continued the correction down to $10027. Uncertainty in the BTC has ended when the price hit $10400 again and showed a massive drop to $9366. We will point out several reasons of this week’s drop. The drop could be a result of an update in the US when rumors on crypto-currency taxation became real. Several notes sent by the IRS to crypto-currency holders pushed some investors to get rid of the BTC and led to a major sell.
The Wright and Kleiman case brings another reason to worry about. If Kleiman family surely inherited billions of $ worth of Bitcoin, then they should declare IRS the quantity and pay state taxes. Most probably, when these BTC’s received if they exist, the Kleiman family will sell them, which will result another drop-down of BTC.
CME Exchange’s futures contracts for Bitcoin is expiring today, though the Exchange showed a record-high $515M daily trading volume in May, futures expiry date gave extra-strength to sellers.
The price by the time published is traded at $9608 per BTC, from the technical point of view the price still has to find greater grounds for another massive jump.
https://preview.redd.it/8f0tliwapnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=64a5214d8a583bd7b7f3dcdd5f3de63290697050
Though we can see that a double-bottom pattern in 1-hour chart and most likely BTC will test $9750
https://preview.redd.it/vib20xqcpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=06b1a9de59c8c76ecc447b5e2b0a8d506a79c12b
CME Exchange will continue to offer Bitcoin futures which is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency and announcement of the release of ICE-backed Bakkt Bitcoin futures in September 23 could be that pump to get the price above $10K.

Now let’s move to Forex market

The pair to watch this week and the next week is EURUSD.
Economy of Germany which EU's locomotive and other countries are cars, has showed a slight 0.1% decrease in the second quarter of 2019 related to the previous quarter. We can never deny the fact that the EU union with all its economy and power of its currency is completely dependent to the economic well-being of Germany. If the third quarter of this year doesn't show mercy to Germany's economy or Germany doesn't change policies to not only stabilize but improve the economy, the EU should prepare well for recession.
Not only economic state of Germany but rumors and news and overall hype over Brexit and Italy's economic crisis are considered to be a sinker of Euro against USD. For Euro to gain power and for EURUSD to show an uptrend again, firstly all rumors and preparations on recession should be reduced to nothing and EU states should do the needful to prevent the new economic crisis.
This week’s economic data from Germany was not positive, IFO Business Climate was below forecasted 95.1 and 94.3 was announced, German GDP was -0.1. These were news which weakened the European currency, although the worst scenario was yet to come. Thursday, August 29 Germany made an announced on the unemployment, and the number was four times higher than on the previous unemployment change, 4K. Since the announcement EURUSD was showing downwards movement and plummeted to 1.0990
If no signs of progress are shown next week, especially if the German Manufacturing PMI numbers don’t show positive, the price will continue downtrend to 1.0950 and find the next support at 1.0850
https://preview.redd.it/cso52ruepnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=21e4bdfed18b0bcce872b8714efa4d5d8fdc8b71
The political tension between EU and UK, US and China last week showed us more-or-less unpredictable movements in US, China, HK, EU, UK stock market indices. Since the “trade-war” begun and US applying higher tariffs on Chinese goods and China taking counter-action the only gainers of these back-to-back pokes were Gold and Silver. Gold showed one more time that it’s the most trusted asset to invest. The price hit $1555 highs this week and is now showing signs of short-term correction being traded at $1526. Major Investment institutions such as UBS and Citigroup look positive on Golds new summit ascents. Mainly UBS has stated that the next week the price could reach $1600.
From the technical point we can see that the price is trying to break the barrier at 1530, and is still unlucky.
https://preview.redd.it/huvtsyugpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ccae0383301cabe7b0b479bde81b72cee5aa81c
This could mean that if the support at $1520 is broken, the correction will continue to $1515 and $1507.
If the downtrend is impulsive the price will reach $1494, where it will find support and another upwards move shall be expected.
https://preview.redd.it/oyzz33oipnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ae2f71cb0fece2770bcff716bd59d39e7a9245d
At the other hand, confirmation of Gold’s uptrend move will be breaking of resistance at $1530 where the price shall face a mile-stone of resistances at 1545-1563-1571.
From the Global prospective we should follow the upcoming Manufacturing PMI’s announcements of Germany and the US, US Non-Farm payrolls and Unemployment rates. Pay a very close attention to announcements of these three states Australia, UK and Canada, as well. Report prepared by analysts from PrimeXBT.
submitted by Esabellaason to PrimeXBT [link] [comments]

Gold prices pop into positive territory after weaker-than-expected Friday jobs report

Gold prices flipped into positive territory early Friday after a report on the health of the U.S. labor market came in softer than expected, providing a boost for haven bullion that has been buttressed by worries about a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.
The U.S. created a lackluster 130,000 new jobs in August, adding to evidence that hiring has slowed sharply in 2019. The increase in new jobs fell well short of the 170,000 MarketWatch forecast.
Gold for December delivery GCZ19, +0.14%, which had been retreating by nearly 1%, popped into the green, and was trading $6.40, or 0.4%, higher at $1,531.90 an ounce on Comex in recent action on Friday, but had put in an intraday low at $1,510.70. Bullion fell 2.2% on Thursday to settle at a two-week nadir. marking their biggest single-session percentage decline since June 15, 2018, and largest daily dollar loss since Nov. 11, 2016, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert declared Thursday’s slide the beginning of a steeper retreat for gold.
Commodity experts, however, say that gold still is feeding off recession fears, which haven’t been dissuaded by recent data.
“A tepid U.S. employment report just released has breathed a bit of new life into the safe-haven metals bulls, who had been on the defensive late his week. Bullish traders also stepped in to ‘buy the dips’ in both gold and silver markets,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst Kitco.com, told MarketWatch.
Meanwhile, December silver SIZ19, -0.30% pared its loss, after tumbling by about 3% earlier in the session to trade off 4 cents, or 0.4%, to $18.765 an ounce. That follows a 3.8% tumble for gold’s sister metal, marking the most-active contract’s largest one-day dollar and percentage decline in more than a year.
Looking ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will get a chance to react to the jobs report in a speech in Zurich scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Upbeat data on Thursday, including a report on private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing Inc., and data from ISM of nonmanufacturing, or services, which came in at 56.4%, up from the 53.7% reading in July and above the consensus estimate of 54.2% expected by economists polled by MarketWatch, helped to drive investors away from assets considered havens, including bonds and gold, and toward riskier assets like stocks.
However, the jobs report helps to support the case for a rate cut by the Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Sept. 18, market participants said.
“This report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see interest rate cuts in the coming months, including in September when the FOMC meets in less than two weeks,” said Wyckoff.
Against the backdrop of growing fears of a recession inside and outside the U.S., gold has prospered, rising 19.7% so far this year, despite Thursday’s decline. By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.29% has climbed 14.6%, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.18% has advanced 18.6%.
Bullish traders say that fears of a market-disruptive exit by Britain from the European Union and the unresolved China-U.S. trade spat also remain key drivers for bullion.
However, some investors argue that the rally has gotten ahead of itself, drawing investors that have been zealously purchasing gold in the face of some $17 trillion in government debt that yields less than 0%. Gold benefits from lower interest rates because it doesn’t bear a yield.
Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com, said “after a 4-month rally, the precious metal looks technically overbought anyway and so a correction of some sort could be due.”
Pest Credit: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-heads-for-second-straight-drop-1-weekly-decline-ahead-of-jobs-report-2019-09-06
submitted by thegoldanalyst to u/thegoldanalyst [link] [comments]

Fellow /r/libertarian Redditors: Please watch out for these linkjacker sockpuppets.

I recently noticed a lot of suspicious links to several identical-looking, low-value, ad-spammy, linkjack-y Blogspot blogs in /libertarian, /economics, and a few similar subreddits I like. I decided to look into it today and discovered a small cluster of seemingly inter-related accounts that link to this set of blogs. Most of these accounts have only ever linked to these linkjack blogs, and have never commented, except perhaps commenting on their own posts to make them seem more legit.
I feel these linkjacker sockpuppets decrease the value of our subreddits in order to drive traffic to their ad sites. I encourage you all to downvote submissions from these accounts, and to these ad-spam linkjack blogs.
The users include:
The linkjack ad-spam blogs include:
submitted by spiffiness to Libertarian [link] [comments]

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Gold Technical Analysis for May 6, 2020 by FXEmpire

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